What are the implications of wild swings in temperature for the veracity of climate change? Everyone who follows climate science knows that the planet is warming, but many are unaware of how temperature fluctuations may also be a part of the climate change picture. Scientific observations provide an overwhelmingly compelling body of evidence for global warming. Many lines of scientific evidence show that as a consequence of global warming, the Earth’s climate is changing, however, increasing global mean temperature is only one element of observed climate change phenomena.
Evidence of global warming can be seen in a number of scientific observations including melting ice and sea level rises. Anomalies like increased precipitation and extreme weather events support the data generated by climate models. However, radical temperature fluctuations are another dimension of climate change that is often overlooked.
Both Dallas and Colorado recently experienced some of the most extreme temperature fluctuations on record. After enjoying balmy temperatures, Dallas was hit with a powerful cold front that caused temperatures to plummet below freezing. On Wednesday December 4, the observed high was 80 degrees, on Saturday December 7, the temperature plunged to just over 30 degrees. That is a temperature change of 50 degrees. Similarly, Denver went from being 67 degrees on Monday to 14 degrees on Wednesday. This represents a temperature difference of 53 degrees.
During the first week of December, 33 million Americans in 27 states were hit by a cold spell. Deniers have commonly looked at cold weather as evidence that disproves global warming. However, when examined over much longer time spans we see a clear warming trend. Further, high and low temperature data from recent decades show that new record highs occur nearly twice as often as new record lows.
Of course, individual temperature readings over the course of a few days cannot be taken as evidence for or against climate change. However, the anomalous temperature fluctuations are part of a trend that is consistent with what many scientists predict will occur as the planet warms.
As H.J. Weaver and his colleagues at the Australian National University explained, “Climate change is predicted to alter the physical environment through cumulative impacts of warming and extreme fluctuations in temperature and precipitation, with cascading effects on human health and well being, food security and socioeconomic infrastructure.”
A NOAA report (PDF) on the 2009/2010 Cold Season stated that a changing climate produced “Extreme fluctuations in temperature and precipitation in the mid-latitudes in 2009 and 2010.”
The winters of 2010 and 2011 in the northern hemisphere have resulted in the record-setting freezes and warm spells. According to an analysis of the past 63 winters from the American Geophysical Union, the warm extremes were more widespread and severe than the cold extremes in the winters of 2009-2010 and 2010-2011. Natural variability may explain the cold temperatures, but researchers concluded the extreme warmth cannot be explained by natural cycles, suggesting a possible role of climate change. The report’s co-author Alexander Gershunov and Scripps climate researchers indicated that these temperature swings are consistent with global warming trends.
In Nowata Oklahoma, in the winter of 2011, the temperature went from a low of -31 degrees on February 10 (the all-time coldest temperature ever recorded in Oklahoma) to a record high of 79 degrees on February 17. According to the National Weather Service in Tulsa, Okla., this 110-degree temperature rise is the greatest change within seven days in Oklahoma history.
A 2011 report out of the UK examined the possible infrastructure impacts of climate change and indicated that extreme temperature fluctuations are likely.
A July 2013 study on plant physiology and climate change talked about “expected extreme fluctuations in temperature and global warming in general.”
It is important to understand as we approach irreversible tipping points that the impacts of climate change may at times appear to be counterintuitive. Far from disproving global warming, radical fluctuations in temperature are another dimension of the same problem.
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Richard Matthews is a consultant, eco-entrepreneur, green investor and author of numerous articles on sustainable positioning, eco-economics and enviro-politics. He is the owner of The Green Market Oracle, a leading sustainable business site and one of the Web’s most comprehensive resources on the business of the environment. Find The Green Market on Facebook and follow The Green Market’s twitter feed.
Image credit: Ted Eytan, courtesy flickr
Hi Mr. Matthews,
Good article! I found it particularly interesting because I was born and raised in Dallas, and moved to Denver just over 2 years ago. I experienced the drastic change in Denver and most of my friends and family experienced the Icepocalypse, as they all called it, in Dallas. I think that the evidence of human activity causing the drastic fluctuation in temperature is both abundant and clear. Many states across the Midwest are experiencing higher temperatures than they have ever seen. With arid cities becoming even drier, we must work to minimize the effects on major agricultural states, so that we avoid potential threats to our food supply. Wildfire season is currently two months longer than it was 40 years ago, with many fires burning larger, and out of control for longer, than they ever have. Changing precipitation patterns also have serious implications for our electricity system. Many power plants require an incredible amount of water to run efficiently. As water becomes scarcer, or when the water temperatures get too high, they must reduce production or shut down completely. To minimize this risk, we must make smarter decisions today that move the country towards low- and no-water electricity sources like renewable energy and energy efficiency. I hope that people begin to realize how much our carbon footprints affect the change in weather and temperature, because there are many simple things we can all do to reduce future damage and minimize the impact of the damage that we have already done.
I feel I need to make a statement here. I am a scientist-engineer in R&D. The problem is NOT global warming. The problem is the 100,000 lb whale in the room and that whale is the insanity called geoengineering and it is occurring globally and it is now 100% operational. Aerial assault begins at sunrise and ends, in general, at sunset. You’d have to be totally blind not to see this or too young to have recalled several years ago when the skies were blue, really deep blue, with big fluffy cumulonimbus clouds. Now every days is a white sheet and gray-blue sky. The sun is blocked. The aerial spraying was initially conducted by military aircraft but around 2013 it went full scale to extend to commercial aircraft as well. Anyone who wishes to insult my intelligence by denying this program exists need not respond. I work in due military industrial complex and I know what they are capable of doing. Stop the geoengineering and the Earth will recover but we will suffer about a decade before the Earth climate system rights itself. If they continue we will have global mass extinction. Get on board and spread the word or sit back and die. The choice is yours because the inmates are now running the asylum. I cannot be more clear. It is man caused just not for the reasons the bought and paid for climate geniuses say. Sorry to red pill you but I speak the truth and all who are intelligent and awake to their surroundings know this is true. Good luck. We will all need it.