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Author Archive for Angelique van Engelen

Carbon Capture And Storage: Solution or Boondoggle? – The Pros And Cons

Editor’s Note: Following is a short segment provided by FORA.tv from a program of The World Bank’s Praxis Discussion series on the role of energy in international development. In the full program, experts discuss the best policies for implementing renewable energy systems, and explore how a clean, reliable source of energy can do more than just light a home.

The video segment below focuses on the viability of Carbon Capture and Storage. Following the video is an article from GlobalWarmingisReal contributor Angelique van Engelen discussing the current state of CCS technology and development, and the pros and cons of relying on CCS as a solution to the twin challenges of energy and climate.

Readers may also find interesting my two-part report of my visit in May of 2009 to the German CCS pilot project at Schwarze Pumpe:

Part one: First Operational CCS Plant Captures Carbon, Will it Lead to Clean Coal?

Part two: Carbon Captured But Not Stored

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Washington Times journalist Amanda DeBard recently wrote an alarming article warning that the new US government is potentially wasting lots of money on projects to capture carbon from coal fired power plants.

The paper suggests there’s no proof that the new technology and the changes to the fuel industry will make even the slightest difference in the time frame envisaged. The author casts serious doubts on the viability of the US government’s $3.4 billion investment in carbon capturing and storage (CCS) technology.

Expensive, small-scale pilot projects are under way [to] capture carbon dioxide before it is released into the air from coal-burning power plants. But these prototypes have not been proved at levels that would make even a dent in the U.S. appetite for fossil fuels, casting doubt on the viability of the president’s plans. Still, the administration continues to promote policies that assume that these pilot programs will soon become large-scale projects and is seeking funds to bring that day closer,” the newspaper reports.

Experts are quoted saying that true costs are involved that no one nows as yet and that this is extremely risky.

It’s promoting a vision that no one knows what the true cost will be and [whether] these technologies will succeed on a large scale,” the newspaper quoted Bryan K. Mignone as saying, who is  a climate and energy analyst at the Brookings Institution.

So what to make of these allegations? Let’s focus on the carbon capturing and storage part. Is CCS a waste of money that will never make it in time? DeBard  apparently made little effort to find out exactly what prototype plants are already out there and what the strengths and weaknesses of CCS really boil down to. The article focuses on the political side of things and in my view is totally disconnected with what’s going on on the ground.

Before asserting that there might be negative effects associated (the “true cost”) with carbon capturing technology, the writer might have done best to seek out the factors determining these “true costs”.

A few quick facts about CCS:

  • The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that globally, over 200 power plants need CCS technology in the next twenty years (by 2030), in order to prevent temperature rises of over 3°C.  As we previously reported, research from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) suggests that carbon sequestering can reduce human generated CO2 to 80% of 1990 levels by 2050.
  • Only four power plants and/or carbon storage projects utilize CCS as yet:
    1. Canada’s Weyburn-Midale CO2 Project is currently the world’s largest geologic carbon storage project, located in southeastern Saskatchewan and started in 2000.
    2. ExxonMobil/Statoil’s Sleipner plant in Norway is the world’s oldest project. It stores carbon injects carbon 1,000 meters below the seabed into a sandstone aquifer. It has been operational since 1995.
    3. The 30 megawatt pilot plant at Schwarze Pumpe in Germany, opened last year. The trial plant is operated by Swedish utility Vattenfall and burns its fuel at 42% efficiency with a target to increase that to as high as 50-55%.
    4. Another Statoil project in the Snøhvit gas field, in the Barents Sea, stores 700,000 tonnes per year, equivalent to 330,000 cars with average CO2 emissions of 160g/km and annual driving distance of 15,000 kms.
  • The main problem preventing large scale CCS adoption by power plants is that the technology is very expensive and largely unproven. Lobbyists say that ultimately the costs will as a matter of course decrease as we get experience, but the lack of precedent is again a deterrent to true belief. All this leads to something of a “chicken or egg argument” in political and policy circles.
  • The costs of CCS arise mainly because the process of capturing the carbon and compressing it requires a lot of extra power. Engineers estimate that power plants require up to 25% more power when they are fitted with CCS. They also need considerably more facility space.
  • Using the carbon dioxide rather than compressing it in energy intensive ways and burying it underground makes a lot of environmental sense. It also circumvents the danger that the carbon might leak and make its way back into the atmosphere. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that risks are comparable to those associated with current hydrocarbon activity. CO2 could be trapped for millions of years, the IPCC believes, with retention rates of over 99% over 1000 years. Greenpeace objects, however, that if 1 percent of the carbon leaks, the next 100 years would see the evaporation of 63% of the stored carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.  It also  highlights the dangers of the carbon permeating the storage shelter over time.
  • The US is spending $3.4 billion on the technology. The California Public Utilities Commission recently endorsed a feasibility study by South California Edison into building a utility-scale base-load power plant. The plan is to power the plant with hydrogen derived through gasification of petroleum coke, coal and possibly biomass.

    In the US, oil companies could be a big part of the CCS solution. They tend to use carbon dioxide for oil and gas exploration. For instance, Exxon Mobil’s La Barge, Wyoming facility is the world’s biggest CCS operation.  Rather than storing the carbon, it transports the carbon dioxide 3,600 miles (5,800 kms) to gas and oil exploration sites. The world’s biggest CCS enabled power plant, the Dakota Gasification Company plant in Beulah, North Dakota captures its CO2 for use in advanced oil field recovery in Weyburn Canada.

    The company produces methane from coal and has a track record of more than 30 years. Further plans are to use around 1.5 million tonnes of CO2 from Weyburn every year for oil recovery. Duke Energy is currently constructing a plant in Indiana based on coal-gasification that promises to reduce emissions by 75% compared to the conventional coal plant it replaces. ”It’s an example of one of the clean coal technologies favoured by the incoming Obama administration”, says Eugene Bukoveczky, a stock analyst at Forbes Investopedia. However, the construction costs were almost double the original estimates, at $2.35 billion. Bukoveczky believes that future federal carbon regulations are another major deterrent for the time being for companies to execute similar plans.

  • The European Union government in Brussels ordered all its member countries last year to invent their own rules for CCS within the next two years. Individual countries must select storage sites and come up with standards for monitoring, safety and finance structures.  At the moment, nine European countries ( Norway, Germany, France, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Hungary. Poland, Croatia and Denmark) are investing €81 million (about $105 million US) in building fifteen research laboratories for CO2 capture and storage.
  • A major weak point for CCS globally is that Kyoto does not recognize it. That means that poor countries wanting to submit CCS plans in order to participate in the carbon trading scheme can not do so.  However, some effort went underway last  April to change this.

No matter what the risks are of future leakages and the costs involved in CCS, I believe that so long as it is possible to capture carbon from power plants running on coal, we should do this as best we can. Even if it means partial solutions are deployed. The only way to end the world’s worst pollution drama right now is to try to end it with all means available. There is no way that alternative energy such as wind or solar power is going to be adopted to such an extent that ordinary power plants will be closing down in the near future. Meanwhile, every day the smoke stacks emit carbon dioxide is one too many.

The interim measures at power plants themselves might be  simply non-existent, but already smaller inventors are producing a host of commercial applications for CO2 based products, ranging from cement to algae, to plastics. Even if we capture the carbon for transport at a later date, that justifies the start of CCS (with the storage part simply left out or turned into a commercial/financing opportunity).

The economic incentive for power plants to quit coal altogether is only strong if the economy thrives. Before the first half of 2008, the price of coal doubled due to massive international demand. Now that the economy is in the doldrums, there’s less of a reason to quit coal in the minds of the energy barons. Prices have returned to “normal levels” which reflect the “abundance of coal” myth.

In the future, coal prices might not only climb up again but analysts also expect coal to become more expensive as cap and trade laws or a carbon tax are passed.   So yes, the true cost of CCS is still an unknown variable. But one that is pretty much dependent on something we’ve known for a while;  continuing as usual is a risk we certainly can’t afford. And there are alternatives whether you like it or not!

Does Nature Provide Us With A “Free Lunch”? Assessing the True Cost/Benefit of Environmental Stewardship

earth_vs_moneyIs Bjorn Lomborg’s environment theory merely a thought experiment that consists of People and Profit but not Planet? That seems to be the verdict of Michael Pawlyn, a London architect who recently blew apart key components of Lomborg´s latest book Cool It at a conference of the British Council Office (BCO) in Edinburgh (see the YouTube videos below).

Lomborg, who says that the climate is not a first priority in terms of an economic cost/benefit analysis of solutions to world problems (ranging from Aids, malaria, potable water provision), cannot help it but litter his argument with blanks when it comes to thinking constructively about climate change.

Lomborg gets a lot of press attention because he does exactly the opposite of constructive thinking – he points out the costs of what he believes is “exaggerating” the problem of climate change.  In making climate secondary to issues such as Aids, and claiming the payback is much better that way, he only gives us half the picture but makes everybody who pays attention think of the whole problem nevertheless.

The observant reader will spot the biases Lomborg has without all that much trouble. His sourcing is extremely one-sided. Well known skeptics such as Indur Goklany, Richard Linzen and Patrick Michaels and Roger Pielke were quoted 21 times in the book, whereas well known climate scientists such as James Hansen, John Holdren, John Houghton, James McCarthy, Stephen Schneider and Kerry Emanuel were not quoted once.

Lomborg puts into plain English what we’ve failed to recognize as the weak link in our approach to development and life on the planet for the past decennia. So Michael Pawlyn, departing from the assumption that sustainable economics can be virtually cost free, did not have too much trouble to take apart Lomborg’s destructive reasoning.

Armed with around 20 slides, Pawlyn efficiently filled in the blanks in Lomborg’s argument, pointing out where he’s biased by consulting only a particular breed of scientists.

The gist of the rest of Pawlyn’s argument corrected Lomborg’s idea of “Profit”.  The incorporation of natural systems into economic thinking is exactly what Pawlyn says Lomborg’s argument lacks.  Lomborg’s calculations of the cost of carbon are a clear example of this.

The Scandinavian statistician estimates the cost/benefit of carbon dioxide at $20/$2 per ton in his book Cool It. (Since the publication he more than doubled the benefits side of the equation to around GBP 5 a ton).

Pawlyn asserts that Lomborg’s calculations are essentially very basic. “There are some things that cost that, but there is a hell of a lot that doesn’t”, he said, citing a 2007 MacKinsey study looking at all the different carbon abatement options with wildly varying costs and applicability.

For instance, a simple and cheap carbon abatement option like energy saving light bulbs cannot be calculated in the same way as an expensive technology such as carbon capture and storage.

As for Lomborg’s assertion that climate change is exaggerated, his grounds are extremely feeble. Cool It cites IPCC figures indicating a rise in sea levels of 18 to 59 cms (something that has recently been analyzed as a gross underestimation by various reputable institutions). But the book omits to include the accompanying comment by the IPCC researchers that this will be an 18-53 cm rise plus an unknown extra rise from various other factors.

Lomborg also completely ignores to put a monetary value on natural resources, i.e. ecosystem services. These are estimated at around $33 billion annually by mature, selfrespecting economists. “Call me picky but that seems like a big number to miss out on in your [carbon price] calculations. [...]” said Pawlyn.

I agree with Pawlyn. You can argue that the rest of the world is only now waking up to eco economics, but hey, if you write a book about why global warming is not economically the number one biggest problem we’re faced with, you’re missing out on something essential if you fail to even admit that others assign a monetary value to the ecosystem.

This issue also results in Lomborg’s belief that if we spend money on climate change, there is less available for other world problems. Pawlyn rightly points  out that the way we manage carbon emissions should not necessarily be seen as competing with other world problems. Carbon management can be an income earner rather than a cost post, which is more than what can be said for Aids prevention methods.

”When we think about nature, we are inclined to think that it’s all about competition. But if you look at mature ecosystems you’re just as likely to find remarkable examples of symbiotic relationships; organisms that have evolved to hook up for mutual benefit,” says Pawlyn.

The London architect has himself developed technology that incorporates biomimicry. A powerful example is CSP, concentrated solar power. This works by mimicking the behavior of beetles. The technology focuses the sun’s heat in mirrors to create steam which in turn drives turbines. It works very well in what you could consider as adverse circumstances. CSP needs a supply of demineralized water to keep the mirrors clean. Incidentally, that is where seawater greenhouse technology comes in, another biomimicry-based solution developed by Pawlyn and his colleagues. It creates distilled freshwater from seawater. The dual technology, when combined in a project, has a payback period of between six to twelve years. In one go, it generates energy, fresh water and combats desertification in areas where resources are scarce by cleverly using sunlight. All for free after a certain period!

All in all, the debate between the two environmentalists was a microcosm of what is happening elsewhere in the world. International climate negotiators will no doubt be involved in very similar issues. Let´s hope they don´t get bogged down in what, in less revolutionary fields, would be termed semantics and that at the end of the day is just a matter of political will.

NASA’s Climate Monitoring Plans

The Aquarius satellite will measure the oceans salinity, giving an important clue to climate change The fateful crash landing earlier this year of NASA’s Orbiting Carbon Observatory meant an abrupt end to the project intended to provide the very first global measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide. The space-based OCO’s measurements would have  provided exact readings of the human component and the natural causes of carbon emissions in the atmosphere.

So now what? Two more projects are still in the making that will provide more or less similar data. The Aquarius, originally scheduled for launch in September 2008  but delayed until May 2010, will monitor salinity levels in the world’s oceans. And another space-based mission, Hydros, will measure Earth’s changing soil moisture and the amount of frost in the land surface. These two factors combined define the state of the Earth’s hydrosphere, which has determining effects on water, energy and carbon cycles.

The Aquarius data might lead to a breakthrough in the knowledge of the role the oceans play in global warming. Scientists have speculated for the past decades that man-made climate change contributes to the increased saltiness of the oceans. The North Atlantic Ocean especially affected by increased levels of salinity and this in turn affects the circulation of ocean currents. The redistribution of heat within the waters (a huge factor in climate temperatures) and the overall water cycle is affected by these salinity levels.

“NASA plans to [ ..] address key scientific questions regarding how Earth’s atmosphere, oceans and land work together to shape our weather, climate and environment,” said Dr. Ghassem Asrar, NASA’s associate administrator for Earth Science in an interview with Science Daily which detailed the specifics of the Aquarius mission.

What’s needed is a global effort to find out what exactly is happening, where, and to what degree. Scientists are especially keen to discover the role ocean salinity plays in big climate events. Aquarius will pass on monthly data plotting out global maps of how salt concentration varies on the ocean surface. The data will fill in the blanks that exist on evaporation, precipitation, ice melt and river runoff on seasonal and inter-annual time scales. The impact of these combined factors on fresh water resources is going to be an eye opener in many respects.

Dr. Gary Lagerloef, who is attached to Earth and Space Research in Seattle, will head up the mission, sharing the data with over 17 universities and corporate partners around the globe.

Meanwhile, Hydros measurements will open new frontiers in scientists’ understanding of how the global cycles work together in the Earth system, NASA said in a press release. In addition to providing information for ecologists, the satellite will help weather forecasters. “Numerical models used for day-to-day weather prediction need soil moisture estimates as initial conditions for forecasts. Incorporating real observations into these models will significantly improve forecast accuracy”, NASA says.

Dr. Dara Entekhabi of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge, Massachusetts heads up the mission. The Canadian Space Agency and the Department of Defense are also collaborating on the project, as are several universities, NASA centers, and research and operational branches of federal agencies.

Major Economies Forum Negotiators Report Progress in Climate Talks

Negotiators report progress at recent Major Economies ForumThe negotiations between the world’s largest polluters on how to fund the effort of Third World countries to cope with the effects of climate change received a boost last week as ministers reported as close a consensus as ever on the issue of finance.

The negotiations, organized in the newly launched Major Economies Forum, concluded last Tuesday with participants saying that they made progress on the subject of finance and financial architecture.

We had quite constructive discussions, candid, frank,” said Todd Stern, the US special envoy for climate change. “We made particularly good progress on the area of financing, which I would say is one of the two biggest issues in the Copenhagen negotiations.”

Stern also told reporters at the end of the two day conference that the US was pretty close to being on the same page as the EU in terms of climate commitment.

We are actually quite close to being on the same page,” he said, alluding to the climate bill which is currently being hammered out in Washington (read Than Hansen’s report on the Waxman-Markey energy and climate legislation).

The U.S. might cut carbon emissions by 17 percent by 2020 compared to 2005 levels. According to Stern, that equals a reduction of 4 percent compared with 1990.

Stern´s colleague, the French Ecology Minister Jean-Louis Borloo was also upbeat about progress achieved during the two-day MEF meeting:

It’s not final, but one feels that there is a real consensus,” Borloo told AFP.

The MEF was launched earlier this year by President Barack Obama to address complex issues concerning developed countries ahead of the Copenhagen climate summit in December. The forum is designed especially to speed up the finance aspects of global climate negotiations.

Negotiators focusing on Copenhagen also met last week in Bonn to agree on a negotiation blueprint, but they reported less promising developments. The commitment of countries to the levels of cuts in carbon emissions is a major thorny issue but intense efforts are made to redress this. And the MEF is crucial part of that process.

This is the best part of the MEF; whatever the forum agrees on gets passed on to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC), who organizes the climate summit and is comprised of 192 member nations.

The forum has major clout because of the interaction between the top decision makers of the participating countries, of particular significance, for instance, in the case of Europe. The 27-nation European bloc decided last December (after much struggle and bickering) that it will commit to a larger portion of carbon dioxide cuts if negotiators manage to get developing nations to commit to more drastic cuts as well. At the moment there is agreement within the EU to commit to 20% Co2 reductions by 2020 compared to 1990 levels, but this could become 30% if a deal is agreed on with poor countries. The MEF creates extra time and opportunities for such deals.

China argues that developed countries should commit to reductions of 40% and more.  Some rich nations – most notably the U.S. – have long said that China and India, which both rank in the top five of most polluting countries, ought to commit to binding targets. Neither of the two countries are compelled to do so under the Kyoto rules.

A new climate accord, scheduled to be signed by international countries at the Copenhagen conference in December, will succeed the UN’s Kyoto Protocol that expires in 2012.

Participants in the MEF account for around 80% of the world´s carbon dioxide production. Members include Australia, Brazil, Britain, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Russia, South Africa and the United States, as well as the European Union.

Scientists say that if the developed world does not reduce its pollution targets by at least 50% by 2020, a 2% increase in global mean average temperatures can not be avoided with cumulative effects that are going to be even harder to deal with than the carbon reductions themselves.

The forum’s next meeting will be in Mexico on June 22-23

Geothermal Energy Receives A $350 Million Boost

Geothermal gets a boost from the Obama administrationIt’s official: Solar, wind and biomass energy now have competition from geothermal energy. We wrote about the advantages of this type of alternative energy not too long ago.  And if that made you wonder why the geothermal sector wasn’t as popular as the solar and wind sectors, you were not the only one – Washington last week recognized the sector’s promise.

The geothermal energy sector received a huge boost last week, as President Obama announced he had assigned $350 million in stimulus funding to the Department of Energy’s Geothermal Technologies Program.

We have a choice. We can remain the world’s leading importer of oil, or we can become the world’s leading exporter of clean energy,” the President said.

We can hand over the jobs of the future to our competitors, or we can confront what they have already recognized as the great opportunity of our time: the nation that leads the world in creating new sources of clean energy will be the nation that leads the 21st century global economy. That’s the nation I want America to be.”

The move firmly establishes the geothermal sector as an alternative energy class on par with solar energy, which, incidentally, received $117.6 million in the same go, and wind and biomass energy.

Geothermal energy has been around for as long as wind and solar energy but thus far has simply failed to endear the masses. At the moment, around 3,000 megawatts of Geothermal energy is generated in the U.S. Some 6 million households run on geothermal heat pumps.

The sector has never been met the enthusiasm Washington displayed  recently. The funding that President Obama made available represents more than all the government financing over the last two decades. “In one shot, this is more funding now than in the past 20 years,” Karl Gawell, executive director of the Geothermal Energy Association in Washington, D.C., told our colleagues at Greenbiz.

The promise of geothermal energy has already been mapped out in surprising detail by three major institutions. Engineers at the Massachusetts Institute for Technology (MIT) calculated that 100 gigawatts of energy could be generated nationwide in the U.S.

The Geothermal Energy Association in Washington DC published a study recently in which it revealed that 126 geothermal energy projects are currently under construction that will add around 5,500 megawatts to the overall geothermal portfolio. The projects are mostly concentrated in the Western parts of the U.S.

The US Geological Survey (USGS) estimated last year that as things stand now, there’s an  estimated 9,057 Megawatts-electric (MWe) of power generation potential from identified conventional geothermal systems. The potential from conventional, undiscovered geothermal resources was calculated to be 30,033 MWe. Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) are estimated at a potential of 517,800 MWe.

The official USGS report concludes;

The results of this assessment indicate that full development of the conventional, identified systems alone could expand geothermal power production by approximately 6,500 MWe, or about 260% of the currently installed geothermal total of more than 2500 MWe.

[...] The power generation potential from identified geothermal systems range from 3,675 MWe (95% probability) to 16,457 MWe (5% probability); the power generation potential from undiscovered geothermal systems range from 7,917 MWe (95% probability) to 73,286 MWe (5% probability); and the power generation potential from Enhanced Geothermal Systems range from 345,100 MWe (95% probability) to 727,900 MWe (5% probability).

That’s a tad more optimistic than the MIT study.  Now that the potential of this new alternative energy resource has been plotted, there’s no question that it will be tapped in the foreseeable future. As for the different kinds of geothermal energy available and the potential for individual households to install geothermal pumps, check out our recent coverage.

The $350 million funding is dispersed by the DOE’s Geothermal Technologies Program under the auspices of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act.  Almost half of the funds, $140 million, will go to demonstration projects in new regions, oil and natural gas fields, geopressured fields and areas with lower-temperature resources.

Another chunk of cash, $100 million, will finance exploration activities including siting, drilling and techniques known for their high upfront risk. This is money well spent because the vast majority, 80%, of all US geothermal sources are very hard to get to and need sophisticated drilling and siting techniques.

The rest of the funding, around $110 million, is allocated to Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) and a data system. This research should lead to expansion of generation capacity. The DOE will also set up a nationwide geothermal data and classification system to assist with resource assessment. This system builds on the 2008 assessment of the USGS quoted above.