Here’s some good news: renewable energy’s outlook is sunny and windy.
The outlook for renewable energy in the U.S. is favorable despite the Trump administration’s favoring of fossil fuels. Solar, wind, and battery storage will provide 99 percent of new generating capacity in 2026, the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasted. If that prediction comes true by November 30, 2026, electricity production from renewables will come close to that of gas. Â
The Solar Energy Industries Association’s base case outlook for total solar deployments is “virtually unchanged” from its third quarter of 2025 outlook. The organization’s outlook for commercial and community solar has “risen slightly due to enhanced project pipeline visibility.”
“America has abundant renewable energy resources that we can harness more efficiently and effectively than ever before in human history.” Johanna Neumann, Senior Director of the Campaign for 100% Renewable Energy for Environment America Research & Policy Center
Trump’s Attacks On Renewable Energy
President Trump made good on his promises to foster fossil fuel production. He signed three executive orders on the first day of his second term that were either in favor of increased fossil fuel extraction or opposed to renewable energy. One order authorized federal agencies to expedite permitting and approval of fossil fuel, mining, and infrastructure projects and bypass the Clean Water Act and Endangered Species Act requirements. Another order expanded offshore drilling, while a third order froze all unspent funds from the Investment Reduction Act, including those for renewable energy.
On February 14, 2025, Trump issued an order establishing the National Energy Dominance Council, comprising the heads of federal agencies and departments. The Council’s purpose is to “advise the President on how best to exercise his authority to produce more energy to make America energy dominant.”
In July 2025, 45 days after signing the One Big Beautiful Bill Act into law, Trump issued an executive order for the Interior Secretary and the Treasury to take any action they deemed “necessary and appropriate” to enforce the end of the investment tax credits for renewable energy. That same month, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) announced it would rescind all permitting for offshore wind energy on the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf.
Solar & Wind Capacity Increased In 2025
In the first half of 2025, wind and solar investments fell by 18 percent compared to the first half of 2024. This decline followed new federal policies that prioritized fossil fuels and reduced renewable incentives. Despite these policy headwinds, both industries increased capacity. During the third quarter, installed solar capacity increased by 20 percent from the previous quarter and 49 percent from the second quarter. Solar accounted for 58 percent of all new energy-generating capacity through the third quarter.
U.S. operating capacity for renewables reached 37.4 gigawatts by October 2025, a 32 percent increase. Another 19 GW is under construction through this year, with a 187 GW pipeline predicted to be completed by 2030. Through September 2025, renewables accounted for 93 percent of additional power, with solar and storage comprising 83 percent.
