On December 14, the tropical cyclone season in the South-West Indian Ocean started early. Tropical Cyclone Chido hit the island of Mayotte with wind speeds over 200 kilometers per hour (about 124 miles per hour) and gusts over 225 km/h. The small island developing (SIDS) nation experienced significant rainfall, widespread devastation, and loss of life. It was the strongest cyclone to hit Mayotte in over 90 years.
There are 57 SIDS in the world, and they are some of the most vulnerable places to climate change. The Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index’s sub-index of exposure to climate change lists 19 countries most exposed to climate change, and 10 of them are SIDS.
Climate change brings more tropical cyclones that hit SIDs with increased intensity. In 2023, 34 hydrometeorological hazard events caused more than 200 deaths and impacted over 25 million people in the Pacific region. Vanuatu experienced two tropical cyclones within 48 hours apart in March. In October, the island nation experienced another one.
From 1995 to 2022, the EM-DAT database recorded 185 episodes of tropical cyclones within Caribbean SIDs and 74 within Oceania. The cyclones caused $45 billion in damages in the Caribbean and $2 billion in Oceania. Since 1995, 20 tropical cyclones have caused damage, totaling an estimated 10 percent of GDP in the Caribbean and Oceania. Eight of those times, the damage surpassed 50 percent of GDP.
“Human activities have weakened the capacity of the ocean to sustain and protect us and – through sea level rise – are transforming a lifelong friend into a growing threat,” World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said. “Already we are seeing more coastal flooding, shoreline retreat, saltwater contamination of freshwater supplies and displacement of communities.”
Small Island Developing Nations and the Risk of Rising Sea Levels
SIDS are particularly vulnerable to sea level rise. The Pacific Islands account for only 0.02 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. They are only one to two meters above sea level, on average. Ninety percent of their population lives within three miles of the coast, and half of their infrastructure is only 1,640 feet from the sea.
Since 1980, rising sea levels in Pacific Island nations have increased the frequency of coastal flooding. In Guam, flooding increased from two to 22 times yearly. In Penrhyn, Cook Islands, from five to 43 times, and in Pago Pago, American Samoa, from zero to 102 times.
Located halfway between Hawaii and Australia, Tuvalu is on the frontlines of climate change. The average elevation in Tuvalu is less than 10 feet above sea level. The rise in sea levels continues. Experts say that half of the capital, Fogafale, will be flooded by 2050. By 2100, 95 percent of Tuvalu will experience flooding from routine high tides without significant action.
Climate Change At The Hague
In November at COP 29, wealthy countries agreed to spend at least $300 billion annually by 2035. However, experts and threatened nations said $1.3 trillion is needed.
On December 13, 2024, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ended its hearings on climate change. For two weeks, 15 judges heard arguments from more than 100 countries and international organizations on climate change and the legal consequences for nations who do not meet their obligations. Small island developing nations like Vanuatu, a South Pacific nation comprised of 80 islands, helped lead the push to bring climate change to the ICJ.
The 15 judges will consider countries’ obligations under international law to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and protect the environment. The ICJ will draft an advisory opinion, which is expected to be released in 2025.
“As an authoritative interpretation of binding international law, the Court’s opinion will reverberate around the world, laying the foundations for more ambitious climate action and reparations for mounting climate harm,“ Nikki Reisch, Center for International Environmental Law Director of the Climate and Energy Program, said.
Countries like Tuvalu, Mayotte, Guam, and all the small island developing nations are on the front lines of climate change and face an existential crisis from a circumstance from which they bear the least responsibility but shoulder the most dire and immediate consequences.
Image courtesy of UNDP Climate on Flickr
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